BS"D

RULES AND CAVEATS
"...
* When the market is trading around the Close,
or in a sideways channel* between PLs, wait:
a) For a trend to solidly make itself visible
OR
b) Until you receive a self-confirming set of signals..."

(Pivot Magic Trading Course)
http://www.supportandresistance.com/Asher/index.html

MARKET IN REVIEW - LITE
Friday (30 January 2004)
_____________________

In general, there are 3 styles of Pivot Magic Trading. Varying degrees
of risk are associated with each style. Some days are only tradable
using lesser risk-adverse approaches, such as scalping (medium) and swing
trading (high). We are studying the lowest risk approach. The
implication being:
It is very important to identify the higher risk trading type of market
as early as possible.
Thus, we are prepared to either avoid entering the fray (in our case), or
to limber up our mouse-wrist in order to capitalize on it (for the less
risk sensitive).

Risk-conservative trading sometimes means sitting on the sidelines, thus
conserving our capital. Friday was a swing trading day; therefore,
today's lesson is very brief.

Morning session opens just above Thursday's Close and trades down easily
slicing through the Pivot to the Mid.

1 = 2-bar/DT Double-bottom off the Mid. Our entry placement rules would
put us into this trade on the far side of the Pivot (that's good), but we
then have no acceptable Price Window (per our criterion) before entering
the "green fog" ambush zone around the Close (that's bad). We require a
secondary signal or a proven trend to enter here.

A = Instead, we witness violent Price Action/Reaction at the 10:00
Report/Reversal Time Zone. The tape now shows us proven Support at the
Mid, and proven Resistance at the Close. Our suspicions are already
aroused that this will not be a risk-conservative trading day. Price
Action has already started to display swing/scalp characteristics.

2 = This lovely 2-bar/DT Double-top:
a) Is in a questionable location. Is it mid-air or beyond the Close?
b) Takes us directly into the "green fog", blind area around the Close.
By the time it succeeds to test the proven S/R at the Close, no Price
Window remains to the Proven S/R at the mid. Fine for a swing trade,
but way too risky for us.

3 = Very healthy, gap-down, Bear Dragonfly through the Close. Again,
no Price Window.

B = Second Bear gap. This one must be an exhaustion gap, as we once
again approach the proven Support at the Mid.

4 = A Doji and a Spike and a DT Bottom, with no acceptable Price
Window. Reversing and re-reversing like a pinball machine... Is it
clear yet?

Price Action achieves a lower top and heads back to the Mid. The
lower top is encouraging to the Bears, but when this mass of Bottoms
didn't clear the Mid, = 5, the die was cast. This is NOT a
risk-conservative trading day. Close your monitor and go help someone
in need, or spend some time with your family!

6 = For the first time, we have hit a snag at the Pivot.
This sloppy 123, once again, can not be entered with the lack of
Price Window open to the proven Resistance at the Close.

7 = Just to have more to write, this reversal turns into a lovely 123
pattern = 8. The lower second top makes it that much more appealing,
but, alas, no clear Price Window for us to trade.

Notice that the BBs didn't even bother to come back from lunch till
2:00 (Volume, Bottom chart), and then, very indecisively. The 3-martini
lunch time dragged on for over 2 hours Friday, with only a couple of
small flickers (green) marking the overlap of the shift change = C.

The rest of the day is just more of the painful same, with EOD closing
back at Thursday's Close.

Asher
=] ;-)>

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